Curated Content

Agriculture is a risky business and farmers face a host of market and production risks that make their incomes volatile from year to year. These risks include yield losses due to bad weather, pests and diseases; post-harvest losses during storage and transport; and unexpectedly low market prices. In many cases, farmers are also confronted by the risk of catastrophic losses, for example, when crops or livestock are destroyed by drought, re or new pest outbreaks, or when lives and assets are lost due to extreme weather events like hurricanes and oods. These risks can pose challenging nancial problems even for large commercial farms in developed countries, but the consequences for vast numbers of smallholders around the developing world are much more severe. Major shocks to household incomes, food consumption and assets worsen poverty and lead to episodic humanitarian crises that require large- scale relief interventions.

Improving agricultural water productivity, under rainfed or irrigated conditions, holds significant scope for addressing climate change vulnerability. It also offers adaptation capacity needs as well as water and food security in the southern African region. In this study, evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in rainfed agricultural systems is explored through modeling predictions of crop yield, soil moisture and excess water for potential harvesting. The study specifically presents the results of climate change impacts under rainfed conditions for ma- ize, sorghum and sunflower using soil-water-crop model simulations, integrated based on daily inputs of rainfall and evapotranspiration disaggregated from GCM scenarios. The research targets a vast farming region dominated by heavy clay soils where rainfed agriculture is a dominant prac- tice. The potential for improving soil water productivity and improved water harvesting have been explored as ways of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. This can be utilized to explore and design appropriate conservation agriculture and adaptation practices in similar agro-ecological environments, and create opportunities for outscaling for much wider areas. The results of this study can suggest the need for possible policy refinements towards reducing vulne- rability and adaptation to climate change in rainfed farming systems.